Mortgage + personal-loan rate outlook
Updated June 12, 2026.
Rate snapshot, not live market data.
This page is rewritten roughly weekly, plus around major Fed meetings and material rate-moving events — not every day. Treasury yields, mortgage averages, and FedWatch probabilities below reflect the “Updated” date stamp above and may have moved since. For decisions sensitive to today's exact number, verify against the linked primary sources at the bottom of the page.
This is my opinion.
What follows is my personal read on where US interest rates are going. I'm not an economist and I'm not your advisor. Rate forecasts are wrong all the time, including mine. Use the data sections to inform decisions; treat the prediction at the bottom as one practitioner's view, dated to the snapshot above.
As of June 12, 2026 · 7 rate-relevant events in the last 60 days
Rate snapshot as of June 12, 2026
What this means for you
- Mortgage shopper. 30-year fixed edged up to 6.52% on the latest Freddie Mac PMMS, even though the 10-year Treasury actually eased this week to 4.45% — hot May inflation data didn't spook the bond market the way it usually would. The gap between the two is still unusually wide, so there's room for mortgage rates to drift back down if yields hold here. My dated guess puts year-end 30-year rates around 6.3–6.8%, leaning higher if energy prices and the labor market stay firm. Anything sub-7% is workable if you need to transact now.
- Refi borrower.Run the math if you're paying 7.5%+ today. If you're already in the 6s, savings rarely cover closing costs unless you also shorten the term.
- Credit card / HELOC borrower.Variable APRs are pinned to prime, and prime moves with Fed Funds. With the Fed holding and markets now pricing no 2026 cut — and a roughly 63% chance of at least one hike by October after hot May jobs, CPI, and PPI — a balance you carry today is unlikely to get cheaper this year, and the small live risk is that prime ticks up. Plan on paying it down yourself rather than waiting for Fed relief.
- Personal loan borrower.Existing fixed-rate loans don't move with the Fed; your payment stays where it is. New-offer rates are unlikely to get Fed-driven relief until the inflation data cools for more than one print.
Upcoming events
The next ~60 days of rate-moving prints and meetings. CPI and PPI are combined into a single “CPI/PPI week” row because PPI lands the day after CPI and markets digest both together.
| Date | Kind | Event |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 2026 | FOMC meeting | June FOMC (with SEP) Two-day meeting June 16–17 with an updated Summary of Economic Projections + dot plot. After hot May jobs, CPI, and PPI, the near-certain hold is a non-event — the dot plot is the decision point: whether the committee still pencils in any 2026 cut, or shifts to a hike bias. The energy-driven nature of the inflation complicates that call, since the Fed treats supply shocks as harder to fix with rate hikes. |
| Jul 15, 2026 | CPI/PPI prints | June CPI / PPI prints Mid-July releases (BLS calendar). The key question is whether the energy/gasoline surge behind the May spike persists or fades as the Iran situation evolves. A cool read would reopen a little cut hope; another hot energy-led print would harden the hike case the June dot plot may already point to. |
| Jul 29, 2026 | FOMC meeting | July FOMC Two-day meeting July 28–29, no SEP. First chance to act on whatever the June dot plot signals, with one more CPI/PPI pair in hand by then. |
Recent events
Newest first. Each event row is what mattered, what moved, and the primary source. Rate-impact numbers reflect the measurement window shown — operator-populated as snapshots land.
- Jun 10, 2026CPI/PPI prints
May CPI/PPI both ran hot — but yields fell on the day
May CPI, released June 10, rose 0.5% on the month and 4.2% over the year — the fastest since April 2023 — with the energy index up 3.9% on the month and accounting for more than 60% of the all-items gain; retail gasoline was up 40.5% year over year on the Iran-linked energy shock. Core CPI ticked up to 2.9% year over year, its highest since September 2025. PPI, released June 11, was hotter still: final demand +1.1% on the month and +6.5% over the year (most since November 2022), with goods +2.8% led by a 10.7% jump in energy and services up only 0.3%. The bond reaction was the surprise: the 10-year Treasury touched 4.55% on the CPI day, then eased to 4.45% by June 11 as core PPI came in below forecast and renewed Middle East tension drew a safe-haven bid. Freddie Mac PMMS for the week ending June 11 still rose, to 6.52% on the 30-year and 5.84% on the 15-year. Markets read June 16–17 as a near-certain hold; year-end pricing now leans to roughly 57% odds of zero 2026 cuts and about 63% odds of a 25 bp hike by October.
10Y: −10 bp30Y mortgage: +4 bpover CPI/PPI week - Jun 5, 2026Weekly snapshot
Hot May jobs report lifted yields; the hike tail is back
The May Employment Situation, released Friday June 5, printed +172,000 nonfarm payrolls against a consensus near 80,000, with unemployment holding at 4.3% and average hourly earnings up 3.4% year over year. The strong labor read dented rate-cut hopes. H.15's June 4 daily values were 4.47% on the 10-year and 4.98% on the 20-year; after the jobs print the 10-year jumped more than 6 basis points intraday to about 4.54%, its highest since May 21, and the 2-year rose past 4.16%. Mortgages moved the other way ahead of the report: Freddie Mac's week-ending-June-4 PMMS eased to 6.48% on the 30-year and 5.79% on the 15-year, down from 6.53% and 5.87%. CME FedWatch then showed the odds of a hike by year-end climbing to roughly 70%, flipping the risk back toward tightening one week before the June 16–17 SEP meeting.
10Y: +9 bp30Y mortgage: −5 bpover weekSource: BLS Employment Situation (May 2026) and Federal Reserve H.15
- May 29, 2026Weekly snapshot
Yields round-tripped lower as the Iran energy scare eased
The April inflation spike partly reversed. After touching a 16-month high near 4.70% on May 20, the 10-year Treasury fell back to 4.45% by May 29, and the 20-year eased to 4.98%, as US and Iranian negotiators agreed to extend their ceasefire and open nuclear talks — pulling oil, and the energy-inflation fear behind April's hot CPI/PPI, back down. A late-May inflation reading came in closer to expectations than April's, which helped. Mortgages moved the other way: Freddie Mac's week-ending-May-28 PMMS rose to 6.53% on the 30-year and 5.87% on the 15-year, because that weekly survey is still catching up to the yield peak Treasuries have already left behind. Net: the bond market un-priced its inflation scare; mortgage borrowers have not felt it yet.
10Y: −16 bp30Y mortgage: +17 bpover week - May 20, 2026Weekly snapshot
Yields jumped again; June cut fully priced out
One week after the hot April CPI/PPI pair, the bond market kept repricing higher. H.15 shows the 10-year Treasury at 4.61% on May 18, up 15 bp from the May 13 post-PPI close; the 20-year moved to 5.14%, up 11 bp. Freddie Mac's May 14 PMMS eased one basis point to 6.36% for 30-year fixed mortgages and 5.71% for 15-year fixed mortgages, but that weekly survey can lag sharp Treasury repricing. The June FOMC is now effectively a hold: the interesting market question moved from 'cut or hold in June' to 'hold all year or hike by December.'
10Y: +15 bp30Y mortgage: −1 bpover week - May 12, 2026CPI/PPI prints
April CPI/PPI both ran hot — 10Y to highest since July
Tuesday's CPI printed 0.6% MoM and 3.8% YoY (highest since May 2023) versus 3.7% expected; core was 0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY. Wednesday's PPI was the bigger shock — +1.4% MoM, the largest single-month jump since March 2022, and +6.0% YoY up from 4.0% in March. Final demand goods rose 2.0% on a 15.6% gasoline surge tied to Middle East energy disruption; final demand services rose 1.2%. The 10-year Treasury closed Wednesday near 4.46% (intraday peak ~4.49%), the highest since July, with 30-year yields trading above 5%. The September first-cut path got largely priced out, and rate-hike odds over the next twelve months are no longer negligible. June FOMC (with SEP and dot plot) is the next event that can reset the matrix.
- May 8, 2026Weekly snapshot
Yields drifted up modestly; mortgage tracked similarly
First regular weekly snapshot since the April 29 FOMC. 10-year Treasury drifted up about 5 bp on the week (4.36% → 4.41%); 20-year nearly flat (4.92% → 4.96%). 30-year mortgage PMMS tracked similarly, +7 bp to 6.37% from the prior 6.30% (week-ending May 7 release). FedWatch June probabilities essentially unchanged — market quietly nudged cut expectations slightly further out, not pricing a hike. May CPI on May 12 is the next event that can move the matrix.
10Y: +5 bp30Y mortgage: +7 bpover week - Apr 29, 2026FOMC meeting
Fed held at 3.50–3.75%; four dissents — biggest split since 1992
Third consecutive hold, but the dissent pattern is the story. Stephen Miran wanted a 25 bp cut; Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan opposed including an easing bias in the statement. Largest dissent count since October 1992. Statement flagged elevated inflation tied to global energy prices and Middle East uncertainty. Cut path pushed out roughly one full quarter; June SEP and dot plot now the actual decision point.
Source: FOMC Statement — April 29, 2026
What an FOMC meeting actually is
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the part of the Federal Reserve that sets the target range for the federal funds rate. Twelve members vote: the seven Fed Board governors, the New York Fed president (always), and four other regional Fed presidents on rotation.
They meet eight times a year. At each meeting they decide whether to raise, lower, or hold the target rate, and they release a statement plus, four times a year, a Summary of Economic Projections (the “dot plot”). Every move is debated for weeks beforehand in speeches and FedSpeak, which is why bond markets usually price the decision in before it happens.
Next meeting: June 16–17, 2026
Here's what the futures market was pricing for the next meeting, via the CME FedWatch tool, as of June 12, 2026:
FedWatch probabilities move constantly. The numbers below are a snapshot — for the live read, check the CME FedWatch tool linked in the sources section.
| Outcome | Implied probability |
|---|---|
| Hold at 3.50–3.75% | 95% |
| 25 bp hike | 5% |
| 25 bp cut | 0% |
Source: CME FedWatch. Probabilities are derived from Fed Funds futures prices and update continuously. The numbers above were captured on June 12, 2026.
What CPI prints actually do to mortgage rates
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index monthly — typically in the second week of the month, for the prior month's data. The release itself isn't what moves rates; the surprisemoves rates. If the consensus call is +0.3% month-over-month and the print lands at +0.3%, the 10-year Treasury barely twitches. If it lands at +0.5%, you can see the 10-year reprice 10–15 bp in the first hour of trading. Lender rate sheets and live mortgage quotes can move the same day on a hot print; the weekly Freddie Mac PMMS average won't reflect it until the following Thursday's release.
The transmission mechanism is the same one that drives the snapshot above: 30-year fixed mortgages are priced off the 10-year Treasury yield plus a credit spread (currently 4.45% and 207 bp, respectively). When CPI surprises hot, bond traders mark down expectations for Fed cuts later in the year, which raises the 10-year, which raises mortgages. When CPI surprises soft, the chain runs the other way.
PPI follows the day after CPI. It's the producer side — wholesale prices feeding into goods on their way to consumers — and it's a smaller mover than CPI on its own, but markets digest the two prints together as a single read on the inflation trajectory. That's why the “Recent events” surface above combines them into a single CPI/PPI week row rather than logging each release separately.
On a 30-day rate lock, the day to watch isn't the FOMC meeting — that's mostly priced in by the time you sign. It's CPI Tuesday between lock and closing. A hot print there can reprice your contract before it funds; a soft one can give you breathing room you didn't expect.
Why Fed Chair speeches move rates
Eight FOMC meetings a year leaves long stretches where the Fed isn't formally saying anything. In those stretches, the market gets its read on the cut path from speeches — and not all speeches carry equal weight.
The Chair (currently Powell) presides over FOMC meetings, sets the agenda, and is the post-meeting press-conference voice. Beyond the formal vote, the Chair shapes the language of the statement and the framing the rest of the committee defers to in public. When the Chair says “we're patient on cuts” in a public speech three weeks before a meeting, the futures market typically reprices the same session. When a non-voting regional bank president says the same thing, the move is usually within noise.
That's why this page only logs Chair speeches in “Recent events” — and only when the day-of 10-year move clears about 5 bp. A Powell speech that moved the 10Y by 2 bp is a non-event for borrowers; a Powell speech that moved it 8 bp shifts the cut path in a way that shows up in mortgage quotes within days. Vice-chairs and regional Fed presidents do speak and do move markets occasionally, but the signal-to-noise on Chair speeches alone is the cleanest read for someone who isn't trading bonds for a living.
How Fed moves get to your loan
The Fed only directly controls one rate: the overnight rate banks charge each other. Everything else — your auto loan, your mortgage, your credit card APR — transmits through the bond market.
- Credit cards + HELOCs. Almost always priced off the prime rate, which moves in lockstep with Fed Funds. When Fed Funds drops 25 bp, prime drops 25 bp within a day, and the variable APR on your card or line follows within a billing cycle.
- Personal loans.Most are fixed-rate after origination, so a Fed cut doesn't lower an existing loan — your payment stays where it is. New-offer rates price off bank funding costs and prime, so the rate sheet for tomorrow's applicants moves; today's borrowers stay where they were.
- Auto loans.Mostly priced off shorter-duration Treasury yields (3Y or 5Y) plus a credit spread. Less directly tied to Fed Funds; more sensitive to where the bond market thinks rates are heading 2–5 years out.
- Fixed-rate mortgages. Tracked against the 10-year Treasury yield (currently 4.45%). The spread between the 10Y and the 30-year mortgage rate is currently about 207 bp (2.07 percentage points). The historical average is around 170 bp, so today's spread is wider than usual.
- Long-duration debt and 20Y Treasuries. The 20-year yield (4.96%) sits between the 10Y and the 30Y. It's less liquid and traders use it as a tell on long-term inflation expectations. When 20Y rises faster than 10Y, the bond market is pricing in higher inflation later, which usually pulls fixed mortgage rates up too.
What I think happens next
(My opinion, dated to the June 12, 2026snapshot above and not a forecast you should trade on. My rate view is intentionally dated to the last update — if this page hasn't been refreshed since the most recent weekly snapshot, FOMC meeting, or material data print, my view may have moved.)
This week (June 12, 2026):May CPI and PPI both ran hot, and for once the bond market shrugged. CPI rose 0.5% on the month and 4.2% over the year — the fastest since April 2023 — with energy alone driving more than half the monthly gain and retail gasoline up 40.5% from a year ago. Wholesale PPI was hotter still: +1.1% on the month and +6.5% over the year, the most since November 2022. Yet the 10-year Treasury eased: it touched 4.55% on the June 10 CPI day, then fell to 4.45% by June 11, because core PPI came in below forecast and renewed Middle East tension sent money into Treasuries for safety. Mortgages drifted the other way — Freddie Mac's week-ending-June-11 PMMS rose to 6.52% on the 30-year. FedWatch still reads next week's June 16–17 meeting as a near-certain hold.
April's meeting still frames the split. It was a hold, but with four dissents — one member wanting a 25 bp cut now, three opposing the easing-bias language in the statement — the largest dissent count since October 1992. That tells you the committee is divided on direction, not just timing. The trajectory since has whipsawed them: a hot April CPI/PPI pair backed the members who wanted the easing bias dropped, a brief late-May de-escalation handed a little ground back to the cut camp, and a strong June jobs report followed by a second hot CPI/PPI pair have now swung it firmly back toward the no-cut, watch-for-a-hike side.
For the rest of 2026, a cut is not my base case — it is barely on the board. Markets now price roughly zero 2026 cuts, with about a 57% chance of no cut at all and a 63% chance of at least one hike by October. June's SEP and dot plot are where the committee puts its own count on paper. One nuance keeps me from simply pencilling in a hike: this inflation is energy- and supply-driven, and central banks are slow to raise rates into a supply shock they can't fix that way. So a higher-for-longer hold is still more likely than an actual hike — just don't expect relief.
What this means for borrowing decisions: if you're carrying a variable-rate balance (credit card, HELOC, prime-indexed personal loan), don't plan around 2026 relief — the base case is no cut, and the live tail is a hike. Mortgages are the more nuanced story. The 30-year PMMS average (6.52%) is sitting on an unusually wide spread over the 10-year Treasury (4.45%), so there's room for mortgage rates to drift down even without Fed cuts — and this week, for a change, yields fell rather than rose, which helps. My dated guess: 30-year rates roughly 6.3–6.8% through year-end, leaning to the higher half if energy prices and the labor market stay this firm. The “don't wait to refinance if you're paying 7.5%+ today” line still stands — that gap is actionable regardless of the cut path.
Rate outlook history
Each FOMC update appends a row here instead of overwriting the page, so the track record is visible. What we expected vs what shifted vs what mattered — readable across meetings.
| Date | FOMC expectation then | What changed | Market odds snapshot | Takeaway |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 12, 2026 | Hold at 3.50–3.75% on June 16–17 (~95% market odds); the live tail is a hike, not a cut. | May CPI (June 10) rose 0.5% on the month and 4.2% over the year — hottest since April 2023 — with core at 2.9% YoY and energy doing most of the work (retail gasoline +40.5% YoY). PPI (June 11) ran +1.1% MoM and +6.5% YoY, the most since November 2022. Yet the 10-year Treasury fell, from 4.55% on the CPI day to 4.45% by June 11, as core PPI came in soft and Middle East tension drew a safe-haven bid. Freddie Mac PMMS for the week ending June 11 rose to 6.52% (30-year) and 5.84% (15-year). | June: hold ~95%, 25 bp hike ~5%, 25 bp cut ~0%. Year-end: ~57% odds of zero 2026 cuts; CME FedWatch ~63% odds of at least one 25 bp hike by the October meeting. | The hot prints landed roughly as feared, and yields still fell on the day — soft core PPI plus a geopolitical safe-haven bid did the work. That matters: the inflation is now squarely energy- and supply-driven, which the Fed is slower to fight with hikes than a demand-led overheating. June 17's dot plot is where the committee finally puts a number to the no-cut-versus-hike debate. |
| June 5, 2026 | Hold at 3.50–3.75% on June 16–17 (~98% market odds), with the tail back on the hike side after a hot jobs report. | The May jobs report ran hot — +172,000 payrolls vs ~80,000 expected, unemployment steady at 4.3%, wages +3.4% YoY. The 10-year Treasury jumped more than 6 bp intraday to ~4.54% (highest since May 21) and the 2-year rose past 4.16%; H.15's June 4 values were 4.47% and 4.98%. Freddie Mac PMMS for the week ending June 4 eased to 6.48% (30-year) and 5.79% (15-year), before the report landed. | June: hold ~98%, 25 bp hike ~2%, 25 bp cut ~0%. By year-end: CME FedWatch shows ~70% odds of at least one hike, and roughly 75% odds of zero cuts in 2026. | Two weeks of de-escalation relief got unwound in a morning. A resilient labor market is exactly what keeps the Fed frozen — and revives the hike conversation. Borrowers should plan around no 2026 relief; the May CPI print on June 10 and the June 17 dot plot are the next things that can move the matrix. |
| May 29, 2026 | Hold at 3.50–3.75% in June (~99% market odds), with the small tail now on the cut side rather than the hike side. | The May 20 inflation scare reversed. The 10-year Treasury fell from a 16-month high near 4.70% back to 4.45%, and the 20-year eased to 4.98%, after US and Iranian negotiators agreed to extend their ceasefire and open nuclear talks — sending oil and the energy-inflation premium lower. A late-May inflation read came in closer to expectations than April's. Freddie Mac PMMS rose to 6.53% (30-year) and 5.87% (15-year) for the week ending May 28, still catching up to the prior week's yield peak. | June: hold ~99%, 25 bp cut ~1%, 25 bp hike ~0% — the hike tail has essentially gone. December: still no cut as the base case, but one year-end cut is back to a live possibility. | Two weeks ago the question was 'hold or hike by December.' De-escalation flipped the near-term risk: a hike is off the table, and a single late-year cut is plausible again. Borrowers get a small opening — if the 10-year holds near 4.45%, mortgages have room to drift down off a wide spread — but the Fed is still on hold, so this is patience, not relief. |
| May 20, 2026 | Hold at 3.50–3.75% in June (~85% market odds after CPI/PPI), with a small cut tail and small hike tail still visible. | A week after the April CPI/PPI shock, H.15 showed the 10-year Treasury up to 4.61% and the 20-year up to 5.14%. Freddie Mac PMMS for May 14 eased one basis point to 6.36%, but that weekly average likely lagged the Treasury move. FedWatch-linked pricing moved from delayed cuts to no 2026 cut priced in, with the year-end path split between hold and a possible hike. | June: hold ~99%, 25 bp hike ~1%, 25 bp cut ~0%. December: roughly even hold-vs-hike path, with no cut priced as the base case. | June is no longer the decision point; it is almost certainly a hold. The live question is whether one hot inflation wave is enough to keep the Fed frozen through 2026, or whether persistent energy/services pressure forces a late-year tightening bias. Borrowers waiting for relief should assume no near-term help from the Fed. |
| May 13, 2026 | Hold at 3.50–3.75% in June (~70% market odds going in), first cut still priced at September. | April CPI (Tue May 12) and PPI (Wed May 13) both ran well above consensus. CPI +0.6% MoM / +3.8% YoY (hottest YoY since May 2023, vs 3.7% expected); core +0.4% / +2.8%. PPI was the bigger shock: +1.4% MoM (largest single-month jump since March 2022), +6.0% YoY up from 4.0% in March, driven by a 15.6% gasoline surge tied to Middle East energy disruption. 10-year Treasury closed Wednesday near 4.46% (intraday ~4.49%), highest since July; 30-year traded above 5%. | June: hold ~85%, 25 bp cut ~8%, 25 bp hike ~7% (hike tail meaningful for the first time this cycle). First cut now priced at November (~35%); ~1-in-3 cumulative odds of any 2026 hike. | The cut path got pushed out roughly a quarter in a single week. The committee almost certainly needs at least one cool inflation read before signaling — June SEP / dot plot is the formal place that read shows up. Sticky services inflation or another energy shock is the real-risk scenario that takes 2026 cuts off the table entirely; that's no longer a tail case. |
| May 8, 2026 | Hold at 3.50–3.75% in June (~70% market odds), first cut priced at the September meeting. | No FOMC since April 29 — first regular weekly snapshot. 10-year Treasury drifted up about 5 bp (4.36% → 4.41%); 20-year nearly flat (4.92% → 4.96%). 30-year mortgage PMMS tracked similarly, +7 bp to 6.37% from the prior 6.30%. FedWatch June probabilities essentially unchanged. | June: hold ~70%, 25 bp cut ~28%, 25 bp hike ~2%. September: first-cut odds steady around 40%. | Quiet macro week. The bond move is the story — yields up modestly with no fresh Fed signal usually means the market is nudging cut expectations slightly further out, not pricing a hike. The May CPI print is the next thing that can move the matrix. |
| April 29, 2026 | Hold at 3.50–3.75% on April 28–29 (95% market odds), first cut priced at the June meeting (60%). | Fed held at 3.50–3.75% — third consecutive hold — but with four dissents: Stephen Miran wanting a 25 bp cut; Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan opposing the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement. Largest dissent count since October 1992. Statement flagged elevated inflation tied to global energy prices and Middle East uncertainty. | April: hold confirmed (95% priced). June: hold ~70%, 25 bp cut ~28%, 25 bp hike ~2%. First cut now priced for September/October rather than June. | The hold itself was a non-event — what mattered was the dissent pattern. Four dissents split between an easing-leaning member and three resisting an easing bias signal a committee actively divided on whether the next move is a cut or a longer pause. The June SEP and dot plot are now the actual decision point — the cut path got pushed out by roughly one full quarter. |
| April 25, 2026 | Hold at 3.50–3.75% on April 28–29 (95% market odds), first cut priced at the June meeting (60%). | Site launch baseline — third consecutive hold expected, market pricing patience over urgency. | April: hold 95%, 25 bp cut 5%. June: first cut 60%. | Market certainty on April is unusually high — anything other than a hold would be a major surprise. The June print is where the actual decision lives; that's the meeting to watch. |
History grows with every FOMC update — appended, not overwritten, so claims stay accountable.
Sources and how to verify
- Fed Funds target: Federal Reserve open market operations
- CME FedWatch (probabilities for upcoming meetings): cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
- Treasury yields (daily): treasury.gov daily yield curve
- Mortgage rate weekly average: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
- FOMC calendar: federalreserve.gov FOMC calendar
- CPI / PPI release schedule: bls.gov CPI release calendar (PPI sister page: bls.gov PPI release calendar)
- Fed Chair speeches + testimony: federalreserve.gov events calendar
This page gets refreshed roughly each FOMC week. If a number on this page disagrees with the source links above, the source wins — ping admin@payoffmath.comand I'll update.